Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win & Who I Want to Win
OH MY GOD IT’S OSCARS TIME YAYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Alright everyone, it is time. The Oscars are here (or they will be tomorrow).
This has been an…interesting season. This batch of Oscars contenders is one of the most unique (and controversial) in recent memory, and anything could happen. That being said, I went through the big eight categories (not necessarily the most important, but typically the most reported on) and broke down each, noting the top two most likely to win as well as my personal favorites.
A general disclaimer for the crowd: I have been insanely busy. This is one of the first years where I haven’t gotten to see every Best Picture nom, let alone others that have been acknowledged. Maybe I’ll explain why I’ve been so busy in an upcoming post…stay tuned. ;)
Want to learn more about the contenders? Check out my collaboration with Just a Midwest Media Girl, 10 Movies to See Before the Oscars!
ALRIGHT! Enough of my rambling…let’s do this.
Adapted Screenplay
There are two categories for screenplays: adapted and original. Adapted is anything based on a book, play, previous film and even real life (which is the case for A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing), while original, as the name implies, is an entirely new piece of work. The current frontrunner is Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan, book by Robert Harris). The film is incredibly dialogue heavy, which bodes well for an award. The potential runner-up seems to be A Complete Unknown (screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks), which I personally liked more than Conclave. However, odds are Conclave takes the cake.
Original Screenplay
Taking a completely original idea and turning it into an Oscar-nominated screenplay is a feat in itself, but Sean Baker’s Anora, is by far the stand out. I have nothing but love for this film, and feel pretty confident in its win. Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain is another film near and dear to my heart, and he has sustained his campaign for the film even without the best picture nom, which gives it a decent chance as well. The Brutalist could sneak out with this one, but I think the attention goes to other categories for the film.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is a lock. There is simply no arguing with it. He has swept this awards season, and will, without a doubt, finish strong. I didn’t even bother adding a runner up to this category because I would be so genuinely shocked if he didn’t win the Oscar. On top of it all, he was my favorite performance of those I’ve seen in this category, and my second favorite of the year.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Ugh. Fine. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). She’s swept. I can’t argue with that. As much as I’d love to see Ariana Grande (Wicked) win, I don’t envision it happening, even if I think she is the better performance, and in a better film. But whatever. They didn’t ask me (they probably should have though, come on). Saldaña is the only good part of the movie, so I suppose it is good to acknowledge all her heavy lifting.
Actor in a Leading Role
Oh boy, this one is fun. It’s down to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unkown). Brody has been leading the pack for the bulk of the season, but Chalamet’s SAG win leaves this category a little more up in the air than previously thought. Chalamet, who is “in pursuit of greatness” (watch his entire SAG Awards Speech here), would be the youngest Best Actor Oscar winner, claiming the title from, you guessed it, Adrien Brody, who won for his role in The Pianist in 2oo3 at the age of 29. Chalamet, 29, is just a few months younger than Brody was at the time of the awards. Adrien Brody is still considered to be the front runner, but I would love to see Timothée Chalamet win and give another super chalant speech (bring back chalantness).
Actress in a Leading Role
Similar to other categories, Demi Moore (The Substance) has been comfortably making her way through awards season, bringing home most of the big awards. She most recently won the SAG award for Best Actress, which is a good indicator for success on top of all her previous wins. Mikey Madison (Anora) (my favorite) is second in line, with her BAFTA win helping her campaign. It’s safe to say, in light of recent controversies, Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) is almost entirely ruled out from the conversation (although, I can argue that it can also be attributed to the fact that her performance wasn’t very good anyway). As much as I’d love to see Mikey Madison win, the Academy has shifted away from awarding their ingenues, leaning more towards acknowledging their veterans, like Moore.
Director
Anora or The Brutalist. Baker or Corbet. Decisions, decisions. Do we award our favorite multitasking micromanager, Sean Baker (Anora), or our epic-making intellectual, Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)? This…could go either way. I’m leaning towards Baker and as are the powers that be, it seems, thanks to his Director’s Guild win (which is super important), but Corbet has a chance. If Adrien Brody wins Best Actor, there’s a chance the Academy leaves it at that, but The Brutalist could still walk away with two big awards. Although, there is a very small chance that is loses all 10 of its nominations. Who knows what will happen…
Best Picture
THE BIG ONE!!! Anora, please. I’m begging you. So are a lot of people. As winner of the Palm D’Or at Cannes as well as most of the guild awards (DGA, PGA, WGA), Anora stands a good chance of taking home the gold. To my surprise, it seems as though Conclave has wiggled its way to the second spot, which is most likely thanks to its recent surge in popularity (thank you Peacock). Going into the season, it seemed as though The Brutalist would be on top. However, while it is still putting up a good fight, it has fallen down the ranks, leaving space for these two to duke it out. My money is on Anora, forever and always.
There you have it! My predictions and guesstimations. Maybe all my dreams will come true…maybe none of my predictions will land and the whole show will leave me sitting confused. But that’s show biz baby! Grab your popcorn and drink of choice (an entire bottle of red wine, or perhaps a negroni for myself) and get ready for Hollywood’s biggest night (or so they say, they have lots of big nights, to be frank).
Keep an eye out on Monday for my post-Oscars recap!!!
Fill out your own Oscars ballot and follow along!
The Oscars will broadcast on Sunday, March 2nd, at 7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT on ABC and Hulu.